Cuba’s Oil Supply Crisis: What Venezuela’s Reduced Support Means for Investors and Businesses
Cuba currently requires approximately 100,000 barrels of oil daily to sustain its electricity, public transportation, and industrial sectors, experts report. However, due to policies under President Donald Trump’s administration, the island is receiving far less than needed.
With the Trump administration exerting control over Venezuela’s oil industry, Cuba is now supplied with only a fraction of its oil demands. This shortage poses a growing threat of a severe humanitarian crisis unprecedented in the country’s recent history.
Essential fuels—including diesel for buses, gasoline for cars, and jet fuel for airplanes—are in critically short supply across Cuba. The nation, already facing extended blackouts, risks a complete shutdown as fuel reserves dwindle, potentially plunging the country into darkness and causing its economy to collapse, according to energy specialists and economists closely monitoring Cuba’s situation.
In a stark example of the crisis, a government-operated television and radio station in central Cuba announced it had been off-air for several days due to a lack of diesel. Power outages have also resulted in disrupted water services for many residents.
More than two decades ago, former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez arranged for Venezuela to supply Cuba with oil, helping keep the island afloat economically. In return, Cuba sent medical professionals and other personnel to Venezuela, with Cuban nationals even integrated into President Nicolás Maduro’s security detail. Thirty-two Cuban officers lost their lives during a U.S. raid aimed at capturing Maduro.
Following the raid, President Trump declared an end to Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba. On social media, he emphatically stated, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!” This strategy to destabilize Cuba is widely attributed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has Cuban heritage.
At its peak, Venezuela provided Cuba with about 100,000 barrels per day, but that volume had recently declined to around 35,000 barrels daily. Jorge R. Piñon, a former oil executive and current energy researcher, warned that losing these shipments would be catastrophic, potentially halting transportation, emptying food markets, and freezing economic activity.
Mexico has also reduced its oil exports to Cuba from 22,000 barrels down to roughly 7,000 barrels per day by late 2025, with a recent single shipment of about 85,000 barrels arriving this month. Other oil suppliers, such as Russia, have not intervened.
The Cuban government strongly condemns the U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil deliveries. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez asserted Cuba’s sovereign right to import oil, accusing the U.S. of acting as an “uncontrolled hegemon” threatening global peace and security.
Cubans are already enduring the fallout from the oil shortfall. To manage scarce fuel supplies, the government requires citizens to use an app to secure places in gas station queues. Carlos Manuel Vargas, a 78-year-old retired teacher and security guard, reports waiting over two months for gas access and now faces difficulties obtaining fuel needed for medical appointments, with more affordable gasoline becoming nearly impossible to buy.
Despite previous Venezuelan oil supplies, Cuba has suffered numerous long, widespread blackouts in recent years. Juan A.B. Belt, an economist focused on the oil sector, highlighted repeated multi-day power outages impacting the entire country. The fuel shortage has also crippled water supply systems, as electric pumps cannot operate without power.
Experts warn the oil crisis will likely deepen social unrest in this nation of nine million, intensifying pressure on a government already struggling with economic hardships. The Cuban regime has historically responded to unrest with arrests; during mass protests in 2021, over 1,400 demonstrators were detained.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel acknowledges the crisis but blames the United States and a longstanding embargo that restricts Cuba’s international trade. He claims the real target of U.S. ambitions is Venezuelan oil.
Díaz-Canel, who assumed the presidency in 2018 and is the first Cuban leader outside the Castro family since 1959, is considered less influential than former leaders. Real power remains with Cuba’s military-controlled conglomerate, GAESA, and state security forces.
The current crisis echoes Cuba’s “special period” after the Soviet Union’s collapse some 35 years ago, which also led to a devastating economic downturn. That crisis eventually eased when Cuba developed domestic oil production, boosted tourism, and benefited from Venezuelan oil imports.
However, the island’s tourism sector has faltered due to U.S. sanctions and pandemic closures, with tourist numbers plummeting 68% since 2019, according to economist Emilio Morales. Many hotel facilities now stand largely unused.
While the U.S. administration under Trump seeks to undermine Cuba’s government, it has so far refrained from pressuring Mexico to halt its smaller oil shipments, in part to avoid worsening the humanitarian situation. U.S. officials believe Cuba maintains little oil reserve and suspect any reserves would be used to sustain intelligence and security operations.
The U.S. State Department recently pledged $3 million in humanitarian aid for Cuban regions affected by Hurricane Melissa, delivered through the Catholic Church.
Despite warnings that the oil embargo could trigger a humanitarian disaster, U.S. officials assert the halted shipments never directly benefited ordinary Cubans. They continue to urge the Cuban government to negotiate or face further consequences.
Tensions between the two nations remain high as Cuba’s deputy foreign minister accuses the U.S. of making “apocalyptic threats” while Cubans mourn their fallen intelligence officers killed in Venezuela.
Meanwhile, ordinary Cubans face increasing hardship—many express frustration over long waits simply to access basic fuel.
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The severe oil supply disruption in Cuba, driven by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, highlights the critical vulnerability of economies reliant on single-source energy imports, signaling potential widespread socio-economic instability. For businesses and investors in Oman, this underscores the strategic importance of diversifying energy partnerships and exploring resilient supply chains in geopolitically sensitive regions. Smart entrepreneurs should consider opportunities in alternative energy and infrastructure solutions that could mitigate similar crises elsewhere, while being mindful of the risks posed by political interventions on global energy flows.
