Jet Fuel Prices Soar Beyond 2026 Forecast: What This Means for Aviation and Business Costs in Oman
Muscat: Despite the recent easing of tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the soaring prices of jet fuel used by airlines remain a significant concern.
Data from the Jet Fuel Price Monitor indicates that the weekly average price of jet fuel for the week ending April 3 reached $209 per barrel, marking a 7.1% increase from $195.19 recorded in the previous week ending March 27. Prices have been steadily rising, with figures at $197 for the week ending March 20, $175 for March 13, and $157.41 for March 6.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) had initially forecast a jet fuel price of $88 per barrel for 2026, based on an average Brent crude price of $62.
As of the week ending April 3, jet fuel prices are highest in the Asia-Oceania region at $228.21 per barrel, followed by Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at $216.89, the Middle East at $215.26, North America at $192.07, and Africa at $219.25.
IATA emphasizes that fuel costs represent one of the largest, if not the largest, components of airline operating expenses.
In 2025, jet fuel prices had eased in line with broader trends in the oil market. Brent crude prices fell sharply by 14.5% year-on-year from January to October, dropping into the low $60s per barrel by June 2025. This decline brought average jet fuel prices down to $89 per barrel in the first half of 2025, compared to $106 per barrel in early 2024. For the full year 2025, jet fuel prices are projected to decrease by 9% year-on-year, settling around $90 per barrel.
Jet fuel demand is expected to grow by nearly 4% annually in both 2025 and 2026. However, despite this demand growth, jet fuel accounts for only about 9% of global refined output and remains a low priority for refineries. Instead, refineries focus on optimizing production toward higher-demand, higher-margin products such as diesel and petrol. Diesel production, in particular, competes with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and is influenced by LNG price fluctuations.
For travelers from Oman and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, significant adjustments are underway in fuel surcharges. India’s Air India has shifted from a flat domestic fuel surcharge to a distance-based system, citing that surcharges on international routes have not kept pace with the steep rise in jet fuel prices. Similarly, India’s largest airline, IndiGo, introduced fuel charges for domestic and international flights starting March 14, with surcharges of 900 rupees for Middle East flights and 2,300 rupees for European destinations. Pakistan International Airlines has also raised fares, increasing domestic flight prices by $20 and international fares by up to $100 due to higher fuel surcharges.
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The surging jet fuel prices, now reaching over $200 per barrel, significantly elevate operating costs for airlines, posing a risk of higher airfares and constrained travel demand in Oman and the GCC. For businesses, this signals potential pressure on sectors reliant on air transport and logistics, while smart investors and entrepreneurs should consider opportunities in fuel-efficient technologies, alternative energy, and premium travel services that can absorb cost pressures or reduce dependency on volatile jet fuel markets.
