Global Aircraft Orders Backlog Hits 17,000: What This Means for Aviation Investors and Businesses
Middle Eastern airlines experienced a 9.6% year-on-year increase in passenger demand in November 2025, accompanied by a 9.2% rise in capacity, resulting in a load factor of 81.4%, up 0.3 percentage points compared to November 2024, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Globally, November 2025 showed sustained strong growth in air travel demand, with a 5.7% year-on-year increase. Load factors reached a record high of 83.7%, as airlines worked to meet growing passenger demand despite ongoing capacity constraints caused by challenges within the aerospace supply chain. IATA Director General Willie Walsh emphasized the need for the manufacturing sector to boost production in 2026 to serve airline customers better. He highlighted the significant backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders accumulated in 2025 that must be addressed in the coming year.
Although aircraft deliveries started to improve toward the end of 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is predicted to continue outpacing the availability of both aircraft and engines. The industry is unlikely to resolve the structural imbalance between airline needs and production capacity before 2031-2034. This is a consequence of irreversible delivery shortfalls totaling at least 5,300 aircraft over the past five years and a record high order backlog.
Currently, the backlog exceeds 17,000 aircraft, which represents nearly 60% of the active global fleet—a significant increase from the historical steady ratio of 30-40%. This backlog equates to approximately 12 years of current production capacity. Meanwhile, the average global fleet age has increased to 15.1 years, including 12.8 years for passenger aircraft, 19.6 years for cargo planes, and 14.5 years for wide-body aircraft.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The persistent aircraft supply constraints amid soaring demand create both risks and opportunities for Oman’s aviation and related sectors. Businesses should anticipate continued capacity pressures, which may drive higher airfares and cargo costs, but also create openings for investment in logistics, maintenance, and new route development. Smart investors must consider the long lead times in fleet renewal, positioning themselves to benefit from increased demand for secondary services and innovative solutions that alleviate capacity bottlenecks.
