BOJ’s Signaled Rate Hikes: Key Implications for Investors and Businesses Amid Rising Yen and Inflation Risks
TOKYO: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to revise its growth forecast on Friday and indicate its willingness to raise interest rates further. This move comes as recent declines in the yen and expectations of solid wage growth prompt policymakers to remain vigilant against inflationary pressures.
However, Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to provide limited guidance on when the central bank might resume rate hikes, a decision complicated by rising bond yields and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of a snap election scheduled for February.
Following an increase in interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75 percent in December, the central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at its upcoming two-day policy meeting, concluding on Friday.
Market participants will be closely monitoring Ueda’s press conference for any hints on policy direction, particularly regarding the balance between curbing further yen depreciation and managing rising bond yields.
On Monday, Takaichi reiterated proposals from rival parties to reduce Japan’s consumption tax and expressed commitment to ending an "excessively tight fiscal policy," raising the likelihood of increased spending and tax cuts after the election.
While expansionary fiscal policies could drive inflation higher, which might prompt the BOJ to raise rates, analysts suggest that a Takaichi victory could empower her reflationist advisers who prefer low rates to support a vulnerable economy.
Ayako Fujita, chief economist at JPMorgan Securities, noted that the BOJ has maintained a cautious stance on consecutive rate hikes due to concerns about their impact on Japan’s financial system and pressure from Takaichi’s government. "Whether the recent depreciation of the yen will alter this position is crucial to watch," she stated.
Concerns over Japan’s deteriorating fiscal situation have caused bond yields to surge since early November. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached a 27-year high of 2.30 percent on Tuesday. Since Takaichi became prime minister in October, the yen has fallen approximately 8 percent against the dollar, briefly hitting an 18-month low of 159.45 last week, the lowest since Japan last intervened in July 2024.
The yen has since slightly recovered, trading around 158.18 on Tuesday. Despite this rebound, the ongoing decline—which increases import costs and general consumer prices—has led markets to speculate that the BOJ may accelerate rate hikes to mitigate the risk of elevated inflation.
Sources indicate that some BOJ policymakers are considering the possibility of raising rates sooner than the market currently anticipates, with April emerging as a potential timeframe, given the yen’s slide and its contribution to growing inflationary pressures.
The central bank concluded a decade of extensive stimulus in 2024, followed by several rate hikes, including the increase to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent last month.
Analysts predict that the BOJ will likely wait until July before implementing any additional rate hikes, with over 75 percent anticipating rates to rise to 1 percent or more by September.
The BOJ’s quarterly outlook report, set for release on Friday, is expected to underscore the bank’s strengthened belief that Japan is on track to meet the criteria for further rate increases. Additionally, the report may revise the economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 upward from the previously expected 0.7 percent, influenced by government stimulus and the waning effect of U.S. tariffs.
Expectations also suggest a slight upward revision in the fiscal 2026 core consumer inflation forecast from the earlier projection of 1.8 percent, factoring in government efforts to lower utility costs counterbalanced by rising prices of goods and steady wage growth.
The central bank is likely to maintain its prediction that inflation in Japan will sustainably reach 2 percent around October, or in the latter half of the fiscal year commencing in April.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The Bank of Japan’s signaled readiness to raise interest rates highlights an evolving economic landscape that might ripple into global markets, including Oman. Businesses in Oman should prepare for potential inflationary pressures impacting import costs and exchange rates, posing risks to pricing strategies. Investors should closely monitor these developments and consider positioning portfolios to accommodate possible shifts in interest rates and inflation, leveraging opportunities arising from increased government spending in Japan.
