OPEC+ Maintains Oil Output Pause Through March: Implications for Investors and Oil Market Stability
Moscow/London: OPEC+ has tentatively agreed to maintain its planned pause on oil output increases for March during its upcoming meeting, as reported by three delegates and a draft statement reviewed by Reuters. This decision comes despite crude prices reaching six-month highs due to concerns over a potential U.S. military strike on OPEC member Iran.
The meeting, involving eight OPEC+ members, took place as Brent crude closed near $70 a barrel on Friday, just shy of the six-month high of $71.89 reached on Thursday, despite speculation about an anticipated supply glut in 2026 that could lead to lower prices.
The eight producer countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—increased production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, accounting for about 3% of global demand. However, they decided to freeze further planned increases for January through March 2026, citing seasonal decreases in consumption.
The meeting is scheduled to commence at 14:00 GMT on Sunday, according to two sources. No decisions regarding output policy beyond March are expected.
OPEC+, which comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other allies, produces about half of the world’s oil. Additionally, a separate panel within OPEC+, known as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), is also set to meet on Sunday; however, this committee does not possess decision-making authority regarding production policy.
In a related development, U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering options regarding Iran, which could include targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to rally protesters, according to multiple sources. Washington has imposed extensive sanctions on Tehran, severely limiting its oil revenue, a key component of state funding.
Both the U.S. and Iran have signaled an openness to dialogue; however, Tehran has stated that its defense capabilities should not be part of any discussions.
Oil prices have also benefited from supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, where the oil sector has experienced a series of setbacks recently. Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday plans to gradually restart operations at the major Tengiz oilfield.
The eight countries are expected to convene for their next meeting on March 1, as indicated in the draft statement. — Reuters
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The OPEC+ decision to freeze output increases signals stability in oil prices, potentially benefiting Oman’s economy, which heavily relies on oil revenue. However, businesses should be aware of the risks associated with geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran, which could impact global oil supply dynamics. Strategic investors should position themselves to capitalize on higher prices while monitoring developments closely, as volatility could present both opportunities and challenges in the near term.
