Future of Trump’s Tariffs: Implications for Global Trade and Your Business Strategy
New York: Policymakers, business leaders, economists, and legal experts are analyzing the ramifications of the Supreme Court’s significant 6-3 decision that has effectively overturned many of President Donald Trump’s extensive tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
Trump’s tariff-driven strategy marked a pivotal shift in U.S. trade policy, altering relationships with long-standing allies and leading to a comprehensive reconfiguration of global supply chains. For over a year, he employed these tariffs as leverage, adjusting trade barriers to compel concessions from other nations.
However, Chief Justice John Roberts, in writing the majority opinion, indicated that the phrase “regulate importation” within the legislation underpinning these tariffs—the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—does not authorize the president to impose taxes independently of Congress. Despite asserting that the ruling would have minimal effects, Trump expressed visible frustration during a White House news conference, particularly directing his discontent towards conservative Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, whom he had nominated, for their role in the majority decision.
“I think it’s an embarrassment to their families, if you want to know the truth,” Trump stated. In a further indication of his discontent, he remarked on the upcoming State of the Union address, stating, “They’re barely invited. Honestly, I couldn’t care less if they come.”
What Comes Next?
The administration is adamant that it will not back down. Shortly after the ruling, Trump declared he would impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The following day, he announced on Truth Social that he intended to raise these tariffs to 15%.
However, these tariffs are unlikely to be long-lasting. Unlike IEEPA, Section 122 imposes a strict 150-day limit after which Trump would need approval from a divided Congress to extend them. While IEEPA generated over $133 billion in revenue in 2025, Section 122 is projected to yield approximately $33 billion within its five-month window, according to the Tax Foundation—a significant decline compared to the $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit.
Considering Refunds
In his dissent, Justice Brett Kavanaugh cautioned that the ruling could leave the U.S. Treasury in a precarious situation. “The U.S. may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers,” he noted.
When questioned on Fox News regarding potential refund payouts, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked, “If there is a payout, it’s just going to be the ultimate corporate welfare.” At the Economic Club of Dallas, he added, “I have a feeling the American people won’t see it.”
Emerging Complexities
Several critical questions are surfacing:
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Who qualifies for refunds? Major multinationals, including Costco, Toyota, Goodyear, and Alcoa, have preemptively sued the government. Companies face a tight timeline and complex criteria to seek reimbursement, and missing the window would forfeit their rights to a refund.
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How might the government contest refund claims? The Treasury is expected to argue that companies cannot claim refunds if they passed the entirety of the tariff costs onto consumers. If they did not incur a loss, does the government retain the now-invalidated tax? This issue could take years to resolve, leading Kavanaugh to suggest the refund process could become a significant headache.
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What are Trump’s potential alternatives? If Congress refuses to extend the Section 122 tariffs, which are set to expire in July, the administration may pivot to invoking Section 301 (unfair trade practices) or Section 232 (national security). Bessent stated that they could employ “alternative legal authorities” to sustain tariff revenue this year.
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Are Trump’s trade agreements still enforceable? Tariffs were used as leverage in negotiations with China, the UK, the EU, and Japan. With the invalidation of IEEPA levies, those countries may now have grounds to retract the concessions they made.
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Will companies risk Trump’s retribution? The recent ruling has opened the possibility of a potential windfall of over $175 billion in tariff refunds, per the Penn Wharton Budget Model. However, claiming these refunds could involve complex audits and significant risks, including possible retaliatory investigations under Section 301.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariffs marks a critical shift in U.S. trade policy with global implications. This could present opportunities for Omani businesses to expand their market access and leverage relationships with U.S. counterparts, as tariffs decrease volatility in trade costs.
However, the risk of retaliatory actions from the U.S. remains, and smart investors should closely monitor the evolving landscape, focusing on strategic partnerships and adaptability in supply chain management to align with shifting international trade policies.
