Oman Oil Prices Surge 13.7% to $80.40/b: Key Implications for Investors and Businesses Amid Mideast Crisis
MUSCAT — On Monday, March 2, 2026, the price of Oman crude surged by 13.7%, reaching $80.40 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. This sharp increase followed joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory attacks by Tehran across the region, triggering significant market volatility.
The $9.69 rise marks the most substantial short-term percentage jump in over a year and the most dramatic price shift since early 2025. The last peak above $80 occurred in January 2025, when Oman crude reached approximately $82.22 per barrel due to global supply concerns linked to sanctions on Russian oil.
According to the Oman News Agency (ONA), the official price for Oman crude allocated for May 2026 delivery closed at $80.40 per barrel, while the March average price stood at $62.17 per barrel, reflecting a modest month-on-month gain of eight cents.
Ali al Riyami, a leading independent Omani energy analyst, attributed the surge to heightened market risk premiums amid geopolitical instability. “The sharp rise is significant, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums,” he explained. “While sudden jumps are not unprecedented during regional crises, the magnitude underscores the market’s acute sensitivity to conflict-driven uncertainty.”
A Reuters report, quoting analysts from Goldman Sachs, estimated an $18-per-barrel risk premium embedded in current oil prices. This equates to roughly 25% of prevailing prices, driven by fears of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent crude futures trading at $77.57 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $71.21, the risk premium implies prices could exceed $90 per barrel if supply disruptions intensify.
Al Riyami further noted to Oman Observer that oil prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term: “Prices are likely to stay under upward pressure, shaped by ongoing regional tensions. Unless stability returns quickly, the risk bias points to further gains.”
Encouragingly, Omani crude exports are considered less vulnerable to disruption due to the strategic location of export terminals away from conflict zones. “This geographic advantage, combined with robust infrastructure, means Omani exports are expected to advance without interruption. The recent attacks were significant but did not target export facilities, and therefore do not alter the outlook for supply continuity,” Al Riyami added.
Since the outbreak of hostilities last Thursday, maritime authorities have reported two attacks on vessels off the Omani coast. The Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was targeted roughly five nautical miles north of Khasab in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in injuries to four crew members and evacuation of all 20 aboard.
On March 1, the crude oil tanker MKD Vyom, flying the Marshall Islands flag, was struck by an unidentified projectile off Oman’s coast. Confirmed by UK Maritime Trade Operations, the attack caused a fire, but the crew was safely evacuated and unharmed. The blaze has since been brought under control.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The sharp 13.7% surge in Oman crude prices to $80.40 amid Middle East tensions signals heightened geopolitical risk premiums and market volatility. For Omani businesses, this presents opportunities in energy export gains, while investors should cautiously monitor sustained regional instability as a potential driver for further price spikes. Smart investors and entrepreneurs must leverage Oman’s strategic export infrastructure to capitalize on uninterrupted supply flows, while preparing for short-term market fluctuations driven by conflict-related uncertainties.
