Trump’s Tariffs: What Investors and Business Owners Need to Know About Their Impact on Trade and Market Stability
US President Donald Trump’s effort to reinstate tariffs following a setback in the Supreme Court has sparked questions about his trade agreements and future strategy, while prompting a surge in refund claims from importers.
Here is an update on the current trade landscape as Trump works to advance his trade agenda:
Current Status of Tariffs
A newly imposed 10-percent tariff on imports took effect on Tuesday and is set to remain for 150 days. This is widely seen as a temporary measure leading to longer-term actions. The tariff excludes sectors already subject to separate investigations, such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles, and does not apply to goods imported under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Trump has committed to increasing this tariff to 15 percent.
US Trade Envoy Jamieson Greer, speaking on Fox Business, emphasized Washington’s intention to maintain consistency in trade policy. He stated, “We have the 10-percent tariff. It’ll go up to 15 for some, and then it may go higher for others. I think it will be in line with the types of tariffs we’ve been seeing.” A uniform tariff increase to 15 percent would impact countries like Britain, which previously faced lower rates.
Why Are Countries Not Retaliating?
US trading partners who have negotiated deals with Washington have so far sought clarity rather than confrontation over the new tariffs. Former US trade official Ryan Majerus, now with King & Spalding, noted that many countries benefit from sector-specific exemptions. The European Union, Japan, and South Korea have agreements reducing US auto tariffs from 25 percent to 15 percent. Since these sectoral tariffs remain unaffected by the Supreme Court ruling, partners are cautious about jeopardizing their advantages. Additionally, any breach of trade agreements could lead to further US penalties under established trade laws.
Trump’s Future Trade Plans
The administration aims to impose more permanent tariffs justified on national security grounds or unfair trade practices. Greer told Fox Business that such tariffs are “very durable” and have historically withstood legal challenges. Existing sector-specific tariffs were imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs for national security reasons. Another tool, Section 301 of the Trade Act, targets unfair foreign trade and was prominently used against China during Trump’s first term.
Future tariffs could cover industries such as large-scale batteries, cast iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals, and power grid and telecom equipment, according to The Wall Street Journal. These would fall under Section 232. Trade lawyer Dave Townsend from Dorsey & Whitney anticipates broad investigations under Section 301, enabling tariffs on many, if not most, countries. He predicts that by the end of the year, tariff levels may return close to those prior to the Supreme Court decision.
Tariff Refunds
Separately, US importers seeking tariff refunds remain engaged in ongoing battles, as the Supreme Court ruling did not address this issue. Greer confirmed that refund claims are moving forward and lower courts will determine procedures for reimbursement.
However, complexities remain. Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics pointed out that consumers are unlikely to benefit from refunds since most tariff costs have already been incorporated into core goods prices. The mechanics and timing for refunds are unclear, and while importers may find the process manageable, downstream purchasers who are not importers themselves might face further litigation to recover refunds, according to Townsend.
Overall, the evolving tariff landscape reflects the Trump administration’s careful balancing act between legal challenges, trade negotiations, and strategic protectionism.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The reimposition and potential escalation of US tariffs under President Trump signals heightened trade uncertainties and risks for Omani exporters reliant on the US market, especially in industrial and consumer goods sectors. However, the selective nature of these tariffs and ongoing legal scrutiny open opportunities for strategic diversification and supply chain realignment. Smart investors and entrepreneurs in Oman should closely monitor US trade policy developments to anticipate tariff impacts, explore alternative markets, and capitalize on emerging niches unaffected by tariffs.
