How the War is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply: What Investors and Businesses Need to Know
Every day, approximately 80 oil and gas tankers normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, a vital narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that channels one-fifth of the world’s oil and a substantial volume of natural gas.
However, on Monday, only two tankers were recorded crossing the strait, according to an analysis by The New York Times based on data from Kpler, an industry analytics firm. Since then, just one additional tanker has passed through.
Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners in Houston, described the situation as a “de facto closure,” noting a large number of vessels are positioned on both sides of the strait but none are venturing through amid heightened risks.
This dramatic drop in tanker traffic follows recent U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran which began Saturday. Prolonged conflict in the region threatens to disrupt global energy supplies, potentially sparking inflation and broader economic consequences worldwide.
Since the onset of hostilities, international oil prices have surged by 12%, trading around $81 per barrel on Tuesday, while natural gas prices have also spiked across Europe and Asia.
On Monday, a senior Iranian military official issued a stark warning, threatening to “set on fire” any ships attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and nearby oil and gas infrastructure have already been targeted in attacks, although initial reports suggest the damage has not yet been catastrophic.
In related incidents, a fire broke out on Tuesday at a major energy facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, caused by debris from a downed drone. Meanwhile, Qatar ceased liquefied natural gas (LNG) production on Monday following attacks on its facilities.
The significant reduction in tanker movements is restricting the global supply of oil and gas, driving up prices for both commodities. The longer these vessels avoid the strait, the greater the risk of further supply constraints and rising costs.
Shipping companies have hesitated to send tankers through the strait to protect crews and cargo, compounded by sharply increased insurance premiums for vessels operating in the conflict zone.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the strait “if necessary.” Additionally, a U.S. government agency will begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines operating in the area.
While tanker traffic has sharply declined, the strait usually accommodates nearly 160 large vessels daily, including car carriers and container ships. Some ships in the region have been turning off their tracking devices or transmitting false positions, complicating efforts to monitor maritime traffic comprehensively.
One notable vessel, the Shiva, a small oil tanker repeatedly suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil and known for falsifying its location, was among the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.
The oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz primarily originate from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the UAE, destined for global export markets.
In 2024, over 80% of the oil and gas passing through the strait was shipped to Asia, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea as the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Although many countries maintain energy reserves sufficient for several months, a prolonged blockade of the strait could severely disrupt their economies.
Recent years have seen multiple supply chain shocks, but the current tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an exceptionally large impact on global energy markets.
This report originally appeared in The New York Times.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy chokepoint, poses significant risks to Oman’s energy exports and economic stability due to disrupted tanker traffic and rising insurance costs. For businesses and investors, this crisis also creates opportunities in alternative energy routes, risk management services, and strategic stockpiling, while underscoring the urgency to diversify energy supply chains and invest in regional security measures. Smart entrepreneurs should prioritize agility and resilience in supply logistics to navigate potential prolonged instability.
