Oil Prices Hit Lowest Since Ceasefire Deal: What This Means for Investors and Businesses in Oman
LONDON: Oil prices tumbled nearly 3 percent on Thursday, reaching their lowest levels since the first trading day following the outbreak of the Iran war. This decline was driven by a US-Iran interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and easing sanctions on Tehran, which collectively improved the outlook for global oil supply.
By 1326 GMT, Brent crude futures had dropped $1.53, or 1.9%, settling at $78.02 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.22, or 2.9%, to $74.57 per barrel. Brent crude hit its lowest price since March 2—the first trading day after the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran—while WTI reached its lowest point since March 4.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, noted that the energy markets continued to aggressively price in the anticipated rapid return of Iranian oil supplies following the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
On the same day, three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying a total of 6 million barrels of crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz, shortly after President Donald Trump signed the agreement with Iran to end the war that had disrupted global energy flows.
The memorandum, consisting of 14 points, initiates a 60-day negotiation period during which Iran will allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial shipping route for oil and gas. The deal aims to restore the strait’s traffic capacity to full operation within 30 days.
While the preliminary agreement postpones resolution of more complex issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, it also mandates that the US and its partners develop a $300 billion plan to support Iran’s economic recovery.
Experts anticipate a gradual resumption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, but caution that prices may not collapse sharply due to recovering demand and replenishing inventories. Goldman Sachs projects Gulf oil exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, with crude production normalizing by October. The bank estimates a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows will be necessary to reach approximately 70 percent of pre-war capacity.
BNP Paribas, however, does not foresee a return to pre-war price levels soon, considering $75 per barrel a sustainable price floor given ongoing supply constraints and rising demand. Earlier this year, Brent crude traded between $60 and $70 per barrel before the conflict began.
Meanwhile, China—the world’s second-largest oil consumer—is forecasted to reduce its oil consumption by 4.9% in 2026 compared to 2025, to 753 million metric tons. This decline is attributed to China’s shift toward new energy sources and the impact of high oil prices, according to a report from PetroChina’s research division.
In other developments, Ukrainian drones targeted a major oil refinery in Moscow for the second time this week, a move Kyiv described as showcasing its enhanced military capabilities.
The US-Iran ceasefire has caused global oil prices to fall more than 9% this week alone. Technical analysis suggests further declines are possible, although price movements may be volatile. Analysts highlight that the 10-week moving average, currently at $97.02, acts as a resistance level limiting price recovery. Conversely, the 100-week moving average at $74.78 represents the next possible downside target if selling pressure intensifies.
A rebound above the 10-week moving average would indicate the sell-off has ended and could herald a recovery in prices.
— رویترز
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The US-Iran interim deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz signal a likely increase in oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices and potentially stabilizing the market around $75 per barrel. For businesses in Oman, this creates opportunities to leverage more predictable energy costs, but also risks slimmer profit margins for oil-dependent sectors. Smart investors and entrepreneurs should consider diversifying portfolios and investing in energy efficiency and alternative energy technologies to mitigate risks from volatile oil prices and evolving market dynamics.
