Oman’s Oil Output to Exceed 1.2 Million BPD by 2028: What This Means for Investors and Businesses
MUSCAT: Oman’s oil production is expected to steadily increase, reaching 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, ahead of previous forecasts, according to international ratings agency S&P Global Ratings. This anticipated rise is partly due to OPEC+ commitments to reduce output cuts.
Current production stands at around 1 million bpd in 2024, with earlier estimates projecting a rise to approximately 1.1 million bpd by 2027. The revised outlook reflects OPEC+ driven measures combined with expected annual growth in Oman’s oil production of 2–3 percent over the coming years.
“Incorporated into our growth forecast is the anticipation that oil production will progressively increase towards 1.2 million bpd by 2028, ahead of schedule and up from 1 million bpd produced in 2024, following recent announcements from OPEC+ that it would further increase production,” S&P Global stated in its recent outlook, which affirmed Oman’s sovereign credit ratings at ‘BBB-/A-3’.
The agency also projects medium-term growth in condensate and gas production, supported by private sector investment. This development is expected to continue despite the government’s strategic shift toward green hydrogen production, with an initial target of 1 million tonnes by 2030.
Highlighting Oman’s commitment to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050, the report noted the government’s success in attracting foreign investments to expand liquid ammonia and hydrogen production. These initiatives aim to replace gas in electricity generation and position Oman as a leading exporter of liquid ammonia and hydrogen by 2030.
“Oman possesses significant potential for developing low-cost solar and wind energy, owing to its abundant land resources,” the report stated. Renewables currently contribute about 18% of the country’s total power generation. Notably, one of two 500-megawatt solar power plants (Manah-1) has already generated 1 terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity since trial operations began in January 2025. This solar project is expected to produce 1.5 TWh annually, underscoring strong progress in Oman’s renewable energy sector.
Key drivers behind the growth of Oman’s energy sector include Energy Development Oman (EDO) and OQ, the nation’s integrated energy company. As national champions responsible for managing the country’s energy developments, these entities have pursued operational efficiencies and growth opportunities across the sector, according to S&P Global.
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Oman’s accelerated oil production growth to 1.2 million bpd by 2028 signals significant opportunities for energy sector expansion and increased foreign investment. Businesses should prepare for a dynamic shift balancing traditional hydrocarbons growth with emerging green energy ventures, especially in hydrogen and solar. Smart investors must consider diversification into renewables and value-added energy products like liquid ammonia to align with Oman’s Net Zero ambitions and long-term market resilience.
