IMF Praises Oman’s Economic Resilience: Implications for Investors and Entrepreneurs
خبرنگار اقتصادی
MUSCAT, JAN 16 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board affirmed on Thursday that Oman’s reform agenda is progressing, bolstering resilience and favoring an optimistic economic outlook. This statement followed the completion of its Article IV Consultation for the Sultanate.
The IMF’s report highlighted that Oman’s economic growth registered at 1.6% in 2024, anticipated to rise to 2.3% year-on-year during the first half of 2025. This growth is primarily driven by advancements in the nonhydrocarbon sector.
Despite ongoing OPEC+ production restrictions impacting hydrocarbon output, the nonhydrocarbon sector experienced a growth rate of 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, fueled by robust activity in construction, agriculture, fishing, tourism, and logistics.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to gain momentum as oil production gradually ramps up and the nonhydrocarbon economy remains strong, backed by ongoing reforms under چشمانداز عمان ۲۰۴۰ and the initiation of large-scale investment projects. Inflation remains modest, slightly increasing to 0.9% از 0.6% in 2024 as price pressures were kept in check across most categories.
The IMF noted, “Prudent fiscal management has maintained a fiscal surplus despite declining oil prices,” with the overall balance projected at 0.7% of GDP in 2025. The nonhydrocarbon primary deficit is estimated to have narrowed by 2% of nonhydrocarbon GDP, reflecting controlled expenditures and improved revenue collection. As of September 2025, government debt stood at 36.1% of GDP, while the current account balance is predicted to shift to a 1.1% deficit in 2025, impacted by lower oil prices.
The 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Programme (FSAP) identified a resilient financial sector, with banks characterized by solid capital and liquidity buffers, as well as strong profitability.
However, the IMF cautioned that risks to the near-term outlook are tilted downwards. Escalating trade tensions and increasing geopolitical fragmentation could weaken global demand and pressure oil prices, hindering Oman’s economic growth and fiscal positions. Additionally, regional geopolitical tensions could disrupt trade and hamper tourism and investment.
Conversely, higher oil prices could result from a global economic recovery or intensified geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, bolstered by accelerated structural reforms that enhance confidence and economic diversification.
In endorsing the IMF staff appraisal, the Executive Board praised Oman’s economic resilience, driven by the consistent implementation of reforms under Oman Vision 2040. Directors emphasized the strong growth in nonhydrocarbon activities and the continued strengthening of fiscal and external conditions.
While the outlook remains positive, they stressed the necessity of maintaining prudent policies and reform momentum, especially in further diversifying the economy and enhancing growth potential.
The Directors lauded the commitment to prudent fiscal management and intergenerational equity, advocating for advancements in tax policy and administration reforms, the phasing out of untargeted subsidies while protecting vulnerable groups, and the rationalization of non-essential spending.
The importance of reinforcing fiscal frameworks, governance, and transparency was underscored, including the development of a fiscal rule and enhancements in public investment management and budget execution.
Moving forward, consolidating stabilization funds, strengthening debt management, and developing sovereign asset-liability management were identified as key priorities.
Directors also welcomed the progress in financial sector reforms and the findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment, noting that the banking system is well-capitalized and generally resilient to shocks. They called for further efforts to ensure financial stability and enhance the financial sector.
They emphasized the need to operationalize a macroprudential strategy, improve supervision and regulation, and further reinforce anti-money laundering and counter-financing of terrorism frameworks. Deepening capital markets and addressing structural barriers to SME financing were also highlighted as priorities.
تحلیل ویژه از عمانت | بازار عمان را کشف کنید
Oman’s ongoing reform agenda is positioning the nation for resilient economic growth, notably in the nonhydrocarbon sectors like tourism and agriculture. This presents opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors to tap into a diversifying market, but they should remain cautious about تنشهای ژئوپلیتیکی and potential trade disruptions that could impact growth. Smart investors should prioritize sectors benefiting from government incentives under چشمانداز عمان ۲۰۴۰ to leverage emerging trends.
