Chinese Exports Surge: What This Means for Global Investors and Business Owners
BEIJING — China has reported the largest trade surplus ever recorded globally, adjusting for inflation, driven by a surge of exports across international markets last year.
According to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs, the nation’s trade surplus—defined as the value of goods and services exported minus imports—reached $1.19 trillion in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This figure had already surpassed the $1 trillion mark by November.
China’s trade surplus continues to grow, with December alone seeing a surplus of $114.14 billion. This surge was fueled by increased exports to the European Union, Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, making December the third-highest monthly surplus on record, behind only January and June of the previous year.
The record-high trade surplus persisted despite tariff measures imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at curbing China’s manufacturing exports. While these tariffs reduced China’s trade surplus with the United States by 22% last year, Chinese manufacturers compensated by expanding sales to other regions, often bypassing U.S. tariffs through routing exports via Southeast Asia and other areas.
A significant factor behind China’s growing surplus is its stagnant import levels, which remained largely unchanged throughout 2025. Beijing’s strategic industrial policies focus on replacing imports with domestically produced goods to enhance national self-reliance across key sectors. This approach was reiterated in China’s economic blueprint released in October, outlining goals through 2030.
Meanwhile, domestic consumption has been constrained. The spending power of many Chinese households has weakened due to a prolonged housing market downturn, which since 2021 has wiped out the savings of numerous property investors, reducing their ability to purchase both imported and locally made products. Consequently, a large portion of China’s manufactured goods are destined for export.
The country’s trade surplus is also supported by a weakened renminbi, which makes Chinese goods cheaper abroad while making imports more expensive. The government allowed the currency to depreciate significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic and has only permitted a slight recovery recently.
Rising inflation in Western markets has further boosted the attractiveness of Chinese exports, even as China faces deflation stemming from excess industrial capacity and weak domestic demand.
At a recent press conference, Wang Jun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, indirectly criticized the United States by highlighting that China’s imports have been limited due to export controls imposed by other countries, which have politicized trade issues and restricted high-tech product exports to China.
Although the U.S. eased some export restrictions on advanced semiconductors last year, the Chinese government discouraged their purchase to support domestic chip production.
China’s export growth has been especially strong in Southeast Asia and Africa. Many companies in these regions, including subsidiaries of Chinese firms, assemble components made in China and export them to the United States, circumventing U.S. tariffs.
China has not recorded a trade deficit since 1993. Its 2025 trade surplus vastly exceeds historical records worldwide after adjusting for inflation. For comparison, Japan’s highest trade surplus was $96 billion in 1993 (approximately $214 billion today), less than one-fifth of China’s current surplus. Germany’s peak surplus during the post-European financial crisis period was equivalent to $364 billion in today’s terms, still significantly below China’s figures.
Currently, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods constitutes more than 10% of its entire GDP. While this has generated millions of jobs domestically, it has also contributed to factory closures and layoffs in other countries.
Following the surpassing of the $1 trillion surplus mark in the first 11 months of 2025, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, cautioned in Beijing last month that China should allow its currency to strengthen and focus more on boosting domestic consumption rather than relying heavily on export-driven growth. She warned that continued dependence on exports risks escalating global trade tensions.
However, China remains hesitant to permit significant currency appreciation, as export-sector employment helps to cushion the economic damage caused by the ongoing housing market collapse, where residential property prices continue to fall sharply.
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China’s record-breaking trade surplus signals a sustained global supply chain shift and increased competitive pressure for Omani exporters, particularly in manufacturing sectors. While Oman’s businesses may face risks from cheaper Chinese goods flooding regional markets, opportunities arise in leveraging China’s expanded exports to Africa and Southeast Asia for enhanced trade partnerships and supply diversification. Smart investors should monitor China’s currency policies and domestic consumption trends to anticipate shifts in global demand and adjust their strategies accordingly.
