Bank of England’s Scrutiny on Lenders: Implications for Dollar Exposure in Your Investments
LONDON: The Bank of England has instructed several lenders to evaluate their resilience against potential shocks to the US dollar, indicating growing concerns about the trust in the US as a stable financial foundation, according to three sources. The US dollar remains the primary currency for global trade and financial transactions, vital to the international financial system.
However, President Donald Trump’s deviation from established US policies on free trade and defense has caused policymakers to reconsider the reliability of emergency dollar provisions during financial crises. Although the US Federal Reserve maintains its commitment to supply dollars within the financial system, Trump’s shifting policies have prompted European allies to reassess their reliance on the United States.
In response to similar inquiries from European regulators, the Bank of England, which supervises banks in the City of London, has asked specific lenders to examine their dollar funding strategies, including their dependence on the US currency for short-term financial needs. One insider reported that a major global bank based in Britain was recently directed to conduct internal stress tests, including scenarios where access to the US dollar swap market could be completely cut off.
Richard Portes, a professor of economics at the London Business School and former Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board’s Advisory Scientific Committee, noted, "In a global dollar funding crisis, the Fed might hesitate to offer swaps due to concerns about potential backlash from Trump; its primary focus is on maintaining monetary policy independence." He emphasized the urgent need for foreign bank supervisors to advise their institutions to significantly limit dollar exposures.
The Prudential Regulation Authority, the Bank of England’s supervisory branch, made these requests individually to selected banks. All sources requested anonymity due to the confidentiality of discussions with the Bank of England. A spokesperson for the Bank declined to comment, as did representatives from major UK banks, including Barclays, HSBC, and Standard Chartered.
In response to these concerns, a White House spokesman stated, “The stock and bond rallies, along with trillions in unprecedented investment commitments since Election Day, reflect that markets and investors have strongly reaffirmed their confidence in the US dollar and the US economy under President Trump.”
One source warned that no bank could endure a significant disruption to dollar supply for more than a few days, highlighting the currency’s dominance in global finance and banks’ reliance on it. Difficulty in obtaining dollar funding could hinder banks’ ability to meet cash demands, potentially leading to situations where institutions fail to fulfill depositor requests, thus undermining confidence and prompting further withdrawals. — Reuters
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The increased scrutiny on U.S. dollar reliance from major financial institutions could signal a shift towards reduced dependence on U.S. currency for global trade and investment. For businesses in Oman, this presents both opportunities in diversifying currency exposure and risks if a dollar crunch occurs, potentially impacting liquidity and operational stability. Smart investors should consider strategic partnerships and alternative financing options that mitigate risks associated with potential dollar volatility.
