US Soybean Market Faces Challenges: How Brazil’s Supply Surge Affects Investment Opportunities for Businesses in Oman
BEIJING: American soybean exporters face potential losses in billions of dollars as ongoing trade discussions delay shipments to China, the leading importer of this crucial oilseed. Traders report that buyers in China have secured significant quantities of South American soybeans, leaving US exporters at a disadvantage.
Chinese importers have completed their soybean bookings for September, acquiring approximately 8 million metric tonnes exclusively from South America, as confirmed by three traders. For October, Chinese buyers have locked in about 4 million tonnes, which is half of their anticipated needs, again sourced from South America.
Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Sublime China Information, noted that China’s substantial soybean purchases in the third quarter suggest that the industry is stockpiling inventories in anticipation of potential supply disruptions in the fourth quarter. In the same period last year, Chinese oilseed importers acquired around 7 million tonnes from the US for shipments.
The risk of ongoing Chinese abstention from US soybean purchases for the upcoming crop year—commencing in September—could exert further pressure on Chicago futures, which are already near five-year lows. Traditionally, the bulk of Chinese soybean purchases from the US occurs between September and January, prior to the influx of Brazilian supplies following South America’s harvest.
A trader from an international firm in Singapore indicated that Chinese buyers are expected to finalize their October bookings by early next month. While there may be some opportunities for US soybean sales towards the end of 2025 or early next year, these volumes are likely to be limited if tariffs persist.
Terry Reilly, a senior agricultural strategist for Marex, remarked that Brazil is unlikely to produce enough soybeans to meet China’s total import demands. He estimated that Brazil might fall short by two to five million tonnes for the crop year.
Since the onset of the trade conflict during Donald Trump’s administration, China has actively reduced its reliance on US agricultural products. Last year, China imported around 105 million metric tonnes of soybeans, with 22.13 million tonnes originating from the US, valued at $12 billion.
TRADE TENSIONS CLOUD OUTLOOK
On Sunday, Trump called on China to quadruple its soybean purchases before a looming tariff truce deadline, a goal analysts deemed unrealistic, as it would necessitate nearly exclusive purchases from the US. The following day, both nations extended their tariff truce by 90 يومًا. Nonetheless, traders indicated that this extension alone is unlikely to stimulate purchases, given that China’s tariff on US soybean imports remains at 23%, rendering them uncompetitive.
It is possible that China could resume importing US soybeans if a duty reduction agreement is reached. Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting in Beijing, proposed that a deal in November might open the door for renewed US soybean purchases, extending the export window and pressuring Brazil’s new harvest sales.
Without tariffs, US soybeans for October shipment are approximately $40 per ton less expensive than Brazilian shipments being procured by China. Following a surge in imports, China currently holds ample soybean reserves after channeling record-high purchases in recent months. — رويترز
تحليل خاص من عمانت | تصفح سوق عُمان
الجاري trade tensions between the US and China يقدم كلاهما المخاطر والفرص for Omani businesses, especially in the agricultural sector. As China diversifies its soybean suppliers, Omani entrepreneurs could explore partnerships with South American exporters to meet local demand and reduce import dependency. Smart investors should monitor evolving trade policies closely, as any shift could open up new markets or create supply chain challenges later in the year.
Arabic 
English 
Persian