War’s Environmental Toll: Long-Term Business Risks and Opportunities for Investors and Entrepreneurs
MUSCAT, APRIL 20 — The environmental repercussions of a potential US-Israeli conflict with Iran are expected to have far more lasting effects on the Gulf region than the conflict itself, according to a new report by the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI), an independent research organization based in Washington, DC.
The report, titled “A Silent Casualty of War: The Rising Risk of Ecocide in the Gulf,” was co-authored by Dr. Aisha Al Sarihi, an Omani researcher and policy expert, and Dr. Naser Alsayed, an environmental policy researcher. It investigates the ecological damage that such conflict could inflict on one of the most climate-sensitive regions globally.
Beyond human and economic tolls, the study spotlights extensive environmental destruction, warning of potential “ecocide” — defined as intentional, long-term environmental harm during warfare. The authors emphasize that the Gulf, already vulnerable to climate impacts, faces repercussions far beyond the immediate aftermath of any conflict.
Attacks targeting energy infrastructure risk triggering widespread environmental and economic crises. Damage to oil and gas facilities or transport vessels could cause large-scale oil spills, air pollution, and toxic contamination, jeopardizing water resources, ecosystems, and vital industries such as fisheries, agriculture, and tourism. These environmental hazards could also impair essential services, including freshwater production, threatening public health and livelihoods.
Critical infrastructure remains particularly vulnerable. Disruptions to desalination plants, crucial for regional water supply, could rapidly lead to severe shortages. Additionally, incidents involving nuclear facilities pose risks of long-term environmental contamination and health hazards. The report highlights how damage to energy and water systems could undermine basic living conditions and require extensive time and resources to remediate.
The report acknowledges efforts by Gulf states to bolster preparedness. Oman, for example, established its National Committee for Natural Disasters in 1988 and enhanced emergency capabilities with the National Centre for Emergency Management in 2020. Other GCC countries have similarly developed national disaster response frameworks. The GCC General Secretariat has activated its Emergency Management Centre to oversee environmental and radiological risks and expanded cooperation internationally on nuclear safety.
Oil spills remain a major environmental threat. Gulf countries have created cooperative mechanisms for emergency response, technology sharing, and expertise exchange. The Kuwait Regional Convention (1978) serves as a pivotal framework in this collaboration, supported by the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, which has managed major spill responses historically.
Water security is identified as another critical concern. Due to a heavy reliance on desalination and limited alternatives, Gulf states depend on strategic reserves that vary widely in capacity. Prolonged disruptions could severely strain water supplies amid growing regional demand.
The report also calls for greater engagement with international legal frameworks. Although the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court does not currently classify ecocide as a crime, discussions are underway to include it. The authors argue that Gulf states stand to benefit from advocating its adoption to strengthen global protections against environmental harm in conflict.
In conclusion, the authors urge the Gulf region to transition from reactive to proactive environmental crisis management, advocating for enhanced coordination at national and regional levels to build long-term resilience.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The AGSI report underscores the heightened ecological risks from potential war-related damage to energy and water infrastructure in the Gulf, presenting both critical environmental and economic challenges for Oman. For businesses, this signals a pressing need to prioritize sustainable risk management and investment in resilient infrastructure, while entrepreneurs should explore opportunities in environmental technologies, emergency response solutions, and water security innovations. Smart investors must also consider the growing importance of regional cooperation and advocacy for international legal frameworks against ecocide to safeguard long-term stability and growth.
