Oil Prices Surge Amid US Trade Optimism: What This Means for Your Business in Oman
TOKYO: Oil prices experienced a surge of approximately 1% on Thursday, driven by optimism surrounding U.S. trade negotiations that could alleviate pressures on the global economy, alongside a larger-than-anticipated drop in U.S. crude inventories.
By 0630 GMT, Brent crude futures had risen by 64 cents, or 0.9%, to $69.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 68 cents, or 1%, reaching $65.93 per barrel.
Both benchmarks showed little movement on Wednesday as markets closely followed developments in trade talks between the U.S. and the European Union, particularly in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff agreement with Japan. This deal reduces tariffs on auto imports and protects Tokyo from new levies in exchange for a substantial $550 billion package of investments and loans directed towards the U.S.
According to Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, "Buying was driven by optimism that progress in tariff negotiations with the U.S. would help mitigate a worst-case scenario." However, he cautioned that uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade discussions and ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could limit further price increases. Kikukawa predicts that WTI will likely remain in the range of $60 to $70.
In a related development, two European diplomats indicated that the EU and U.S. are progressing toward a trade agreement that may establish a baseline 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods, with potential exemptions. This move could set the stage for another significant trade agreement following the recent Japan deal.
On the supply front, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, reaching a total of 419 million barrels, which surpassed analysts’ forecasts of a 1.6 million-barrel decrease. Additionally, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.7 million barrels to 231.1 million barrels, nearly double the anticipated 908,000-barrel reduction. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.9 million barrels to 109.9 million barrels, remaining close to their lowest seasonal levels since 1996, as noted by ANZ analysts.
"This suggests that demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer has been relatively strong," ANZ commented.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to be a significant concern. Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, discussing further prisoner exchanges, though they remain far apart on ceasefire terms and the potential for a meeting between their leaders.
In another development, foreign oil tankers have been temporarily barred from loading at Russia’s primary Black Sea ports due to new regulations, according to two industry sources. This effectively halts exports from Kazakhstan via a consortium partly owned by U.S. energy firms.
The U.S. energy secretary stated on Tuesday that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on Russian oil to help bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the EU agreed on Friday to its 18th sanctions package against Russia, which includes lowering the price cap on Russian crude. — Reuters
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The recent rise in oil prices, buoyed by US trade negotiations and a decline in US crude inventories, presents a strategic opportunity for Omani businesses reliant on oil revenues. However, geopolitical tensions, notably in Russia and Ukraine, pose risks that could disrupt markets and affect global supply chains. Smart investors should closely monitor these trade developments and assess potential impacts on demand, particularly for sectors connected to energy and exports.
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