Airlines Eye Commission on Every Purchase: What This Means for Your Business and Investment Opportunities
Frequent-flyer programs have become some of the most valuable assets in the aviation industry. These loyalty programs are now essential for many airlines, generating substantial profits during prosperous periods and mitigating losses during downturns. Globally, their worth runs into the hundreds of billions of dollars, sometimes representing a significant portion of the airlines’ overall value.
A major driver of this loyalty ecosystem is credit card spending, particularly in the United States, where most leading airlines collaborate with banks to issue credit cards affiliated with frequent-flyer programs. The three largest U.S. carriers—American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines—collectively earn billions annually from these cards and programs, a revenue stream critical to their success.
Evert de Boer, managing director at On Point Loyalty, a consulting firm, emphasized the importance of these programs: “A very large share of the profits are directly attributable to the loyalty program. If you were to take away the loyalty programs, it would have a huge impact on the big U.S. carriers.”
Loyalty programs have bolstered the dominance of major U.S. airlines, giving them a competitive edge over smaller or low-cost carriers, some of which struggle financially. These programs encourage customers to remain loyal despite sometimes paying higher fares, drawn by exclusive perks.
However, the credit cards tied to these programs face criticism. Restaurants, retailers, and some lawmakers advocate for an overhaul of the fees that make these programs highly profitable for banks and airlines. Yet, efforts to reform these fees in Congress have so far seen limited success.
The loyalty arms race began in 1981 when American Airlines launched its AAdvantage program, soon followed by United’s MileagePlus. Competitors quickly adopted similar strategies. Over time, rewards evolved into a form of currency, with airlines issuing co-branded credit cards and selling points to other businesses.
Since the 2010s, major U.S. airlines have made two significant adjustments that increased profitability: rewarding customers based on spending rather than miles flown, and allowing ticket prices booked with points to fluctuate according to demand and other factors.
“These programs are businesses,” said Thomas O’Toole, associate dean at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management and former United Airlines CMO. “They are very strategic businesses, and they are very rational businesses.”
A 2023 report by de Boer and a colleague valued Delta’s SkyMiles as the world’s most valuable loyalty program at approximately $28 billion. By comparison, Delta’s market valuation is about $40 billion. American’s program was valued at $24 billion, United’s at $22 billion, and Southwest’s—originally a low-cost carrier—around $9 billion.
Although airlines disclose little about their loyalty programs, financial analyses reveal that American and Delta each generated roughly $7 billion from these programs last year, with United earning about $6 billion, according to Jay Sorensen of IdeaWorksCompany.
These programs are underpinned by millions of credit card users who accumulate airline points through spending. Banks purchase these points in bulk from airlines, often spending billions annually.
“What really changed the dynamics of these programs is the arrival of credit cards,” Sorensen noted.
Banks recoup these expenditures through interest, fees, and merchant charges associated with card use. Airline cards attract high-spending customers who frequently travel.
Consumers spent approximately $186 billion last year on Delta-branded credit cards, representing nearly 12% of global card spending through American Express, Delta’s credit card partner. Delta reported $7.4 billion in cash sales of loyalty points to American Express in 2024, marking an 8% increase from the previous year.
Frequent-flyer programs enjoy broad customer appeal, offering benefits like early boarding, lounge access, and opportunities to upgrade seats or book dream vacations. These perks foster what Dwight James, Delta’s senior vice president of loyalty, calls “an emotional bias” towards the airline.
“The ability to earn currency and the utility it brings you becomes something that is really worth attaching to,” said James. “We want it to be seamless; we want to take the cognitive stress of travel out of the equation. We want to be a one-stop shop.”
Such benefits have helped transform air travel into less of a commodity business for major airlines. Experts also highlight that a notable portion of loyalty points remains unused.
Joe McFarren, a Minneapolis resident, shifted from skepticism to loyalty after regularly flying for work. He now prioritizes Delta, achieving the airline’s highest status to upgrade family seats on long trips, enhancing comfort and rest.
Loyalty programs proved so valuable during the pandemic that American, United, and Delta used them as collateral to borrow billions when air travel drastically declined.
Luc Bondar, president and COO of United’s MileagePlus program, reflected on this shift: “What that did was open the eyes of the industry, of the executive leadership, to think about the program differently, as a source of stability but also as a platform for different types of value creation and growth.”
Even during economic downturns, loyalty revenue remains resilient. For example, during the 2008-2009 recession, United’s overall revenue dropped 19%, but loyalty revenue declined just 2%.
However, consumer enthusiasm for loyalty programs is not guaranteed. If airlines make rewards difficult to redeem or restrict perks, customers might switch allegiances.
Regulatory changes could also impact these programs. The European Union has capped merchant fees on credit card transactions at 0.3%, whereas the U.S. allows fees around 1.8%—a significant portion funds customer rewards. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has proposed legislation to reduce these fees, supported by retailers and restaurants but opposed by banks and airlines. With a Republican-controlled Congress and President Donald Trump in office, the legislation’s prospects remain uncertain.
Looking ahead, airline loyalty programs are expected to continue growing and evolving. Some airlines are expanding their offerings beyond travel; United plans to provide media content, experiences, and products from other brands. Delta has partnered with Starbucks and Uber to let customers earn points on everyday purchases.
Loyalty points have become so valuable that businesses seek partnerships with large programs. International Airlines Group (IAG), owner of British Airways and Iberia, created Avios, a standalone loyalty business. Avios now serves other airlines like Finnair and Loganair, which IAG does not own.
Bondar sees more innovation ahead for MileagePlus: “We’re going to continue to build these out in ways that create resilience for the airline and relevance for the customer.”
This report originally appeared in The New York Times.
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The rise of frequent-flyer loyalty programs, now worth billions and integral to airline profitability, signals a strategic shift where customer spending drives value over flight miles. For businesses in Oman, especially in travel and credit sectors, there’s a prime opportunity to develop or partner in loyalty ecosystems that can build customer retention and generate steady revenue streams beyond conventional services. Smart investors should monitor regulatory risks around credit card fees but also explore innovative cross-industry collaborations, as loyalty points increasingly become a currency for broader consumer engagement and resilience against market downturns.
