Strait of Hormuz Reopens: What Sparse Shipping Traffic Means for Your Business and Investments
WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated there had been “some pretty good news” regarding Iran, expressing cautious optimism about ongoing peace negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. However, he warned that the current ceasefire might not be extended beyond Wednesday without a comprehensive agreement.
Earlier, Iran temporarily reopened the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz following a separate U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon. Despite this development, subsequent statements from both parties left uncertainty about when normal shipping traffic through this critical global oil passage might resume.
Speaking from Air Force One on Friday evening while returning to Washington from Phoenix, Trump declined to provide details on the positive developments but said talks were scheduled over the weekend. “It seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran,” he said. Emphasizing the paramount goal, Trump stated, “The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, and that supersedes everything else.”
However, Trump cautioned that without a lasting peace deal by Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and the U.S. would maintain its blockade on Iranian ports.
The conflict, which began on February 28 with a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, has resulted in thousands of casualties and caused oil prices to surge due to the effective closure of the strait, which previously handled about 20% of the world’s oil shipments.
Trump had indicated to Reuters that direct talks between the U.S. and Iran might continue over the weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan, where high-level negotiations recently concluded without agreement. Nonetheless, some diplomats expressed skepticism about the feasibility of weekend talks given logistical challenges.
No visible preparations for talks were reported on Saturday in Islamabad, where Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has been mediating discussions since midweek. A Pakistani source involved in mediation efforts stated a preliminary memorandum of understanding could be reached between the U.S. and Iran, possibly followed by a full peace accord within 60 days.
Complicating matters, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and senior negotiator, warned via social media that the Strait of Hormuz “will not remain open” if the U.S. blockade persists.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced that the strait remained open to all commercial vessels for the duration of a ten-day truce agreed between Israel and Lebanon after Israeli forces invaded Lebanon following Hezbollah’s involvement in the fighting.
Shipping activity showed about 20 vessels, including container ships operated by French group CMA CGM, moving toward the Strait of Hormuz on Friday evening, though many reportedly turned back for unclear reasons. A cruise ship stranded in Dubai, the Celestyal Discovery, crossed the strait and headed toward Oman Saturday morning, according to Marine Traffic data.
Iran requires all vessels passing through the strait to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—a new stipulation since the conflict began. Iran’s Defense Ministry declared military ships and vessels linked to hostile forces, namely the U.S. and Israel, remain barred from passage.
Shipping companies have expressed the need for clarifications about risks including potential mines. The U.S. Navy has warned mariners that the threat from mines in the waterway is not fully understood and advised avoiding the area if possible.
There remains no clarity on how nuclear discussions will proceed. Trump stated the U.S. intends to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, which Iran insists will not be transferred elsewhere.
An Iranian official expressed hope for a preliminary agreement soon.
Following news of the ceasefire and reopening of the strait, oil prices dropped about 10%, and global stock markets rose. More than a dozen countries expressed willingness to join an international mission to protect shipping in the strait once conditions are favorable.
Reports suggest an agreement to unfreeze billions in Iranian assets may be part of the proposed accord, though no timeline has been set. Trump later clarified at an Arizona rally that “no money will exchange hands in any way, shape or form.”
During last weekend’s talks, the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of Iranian nuclear activities, while Iran countered with a three-to-five-year halt, according to insiders. Some signs of compromise on reducing uranium stockpiles have been noted.
Trump indicated the U.S. would proceed “at a nice leisurely pace” in handling Iran’s enriched uranium, describing plans to “excavate with big machinery” and return materials to the U.S.
Despite the cautious optimism, Iranian sources warn significant gaps remain before an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, senior Iranian clerics expressed defiance, with Ahmad Khatami declaring, “Our people do not negotiate while being humiliated.”
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The evolving U.S.-Iran peace talks and the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz present significant opportunities for Oman’s maritime and logistics sectors to capitalize on renewed shipping flows. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and potential ceasefire lapses pose risks of volatility in oil prices and trade routes. Smart investors and entrepreneurs should closely monitor diplomatic developments and prepare for both opportunities in regional trade expansion and contingencies for disruption.
