Oil Prices Steady: How the Gaza Ceasefire and Ukraine Tensions Could Impact Your Business in Oman
سنگاپور: Oil prices showed minimal fluctuation on Thursday as investors assessed a potential ceasefire in Gaza, which could alleviate geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, against the backdrop of stalled peace negotiations in Ukraine that might sustain sanctions on Russia and limit its oil exports.
As of 0629 GMT, Brent crude futures increased by 2 cents to $66.27 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude saw a slight decline of 1 cent, settling at $62.54.
Former US President Donald Trump announced that a long-anticipated agreement for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release had been reached, aimed at concluding the two-year conflict in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated he would call a government meeting to approve the ceasefire arrangement, with the signing expected around noon local time (0900 GMT) on Thursday.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has influenced oil prices, as investors consider the potential risk to global supply should the situation escalate into a broader regional confrontation. Michael McCarthy, CEO of the investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, noted that the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to significantly impact oil supply in the Middle East, given that OPEC+ has not met its increased production targets.
The OPEC+ coalition agreed on Sunday to a modest output increase for November, falling short of market expectations and alleviating concerns over oversupply. On Wednesday, prices rose approximately 1%, reaching a week-high due to stalled progress in Ukraine peace talks, indicating that sanctions against Russia—currently the world’s second-largest oil exporter—are likely to persist.
Rystad’s Galimberti remarked, "As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the geopolitical risk premium is poised to remain elevated, with Russia’s production at considerable risk."
Additionally, total weekly petroleum products supplied in the US—a proxy for oil consumption—rose to 21.990 million barrels per day, the highest level observed since December 2022, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration.
Analysts at JP Morgan reported that global oil demand started October on a weaker note, as various consumption indicators, including container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles and truck toll mileage in Germany, suggested a slowdown in activity. Global oil demand averaged 105.9 million barrels per day in the first week of October, an increase of 300,000 bpd from the previous year but 90,000 bpd lower than JP Morgan’s projections.
Moreover, the pace of global crude and product inventory accumulation has slowed, with an increase of 8 million barrels last week—the slowest rise in the past five weeks.
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اخیر ceasefire deal in Gaza, while initially perceived as a stabilizing factor, may not significantly alter oil supply dynamics in the Middle East, especially as OPEC+ has underproduced its targets. For businesses in Oman, this creates an opportunity to capitalize on rising oil demand, as US petroleum consumption hits record highs, but also poses risks from ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially with the conflict in Ukraine potentially maintaining pressure on global oil prices. Smart investors should focus on sectors stable in turbulent times and consider diversifying portfolios to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating oil prices.
