IEA’s Largest Oil Release Proposal: What It Means for Oil Investors and Businesses in Oman
Oil prices continued to decline on Wednesday amid reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering the largest release of oil reserves in its history, aimed at countering potential supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent crude futures dropped by 88 cents, or 1%, to $86.92 per barrel as of 04:51 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.10 per barrel.
After surging 5% at market open—following a steep decline of over 11% on Tuesday, the largest daily drop since 2022—U.S. crude prices remain volatile. The sharp Tuesday fall came a day after former U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a swift end to the conflict. On Monday, WTI prices reached above $119 per barrel, their highest level since June 2022.
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing officials familiar with the matter, the IEA’s proposed reserve drawdown would surpass the 182 million barrels released by IEA member countries during two emergency interventions in 2022, which aimed to offset the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Goldman Sachs analysts noted this proposed release could compensate for approximately 12 days of the estimated 15.4 million barrel-per-day disruption in Gulf exports.
On Tuesday, the U.S. and Israel conducted what both the Pentagon and Iranian sources described as the most intense airstrikes of the war against Iran. Additionally, the U.S. military “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command. President Trump warned that any mines laid in the Strait must be removed immediately.
Trump has frequently stated that the U.S. is prepared to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. However, Reuters reported that the U.S. Navy has so far declined requests for military escorts from the shipping industry, citing a high risk of attacks.
Analysts at UOB highlighted the continued normalization of oil prices following Monday’s spike, emphasizing ongoing market focus on Middle East developments as investors assess the duration of elevated energy costs.
G7 officials convened online to discuss the potential release of emergency oil reserves to mitigate market volatility. French President Emmanuel Macron is set to host a video conference with other G7 leaders on Wednesday to evaluate the conflict’s impact on energy supplies and consider appropriate measures.
Despite these efforts, some analysts remain cautious about the effectiveness of the IEA’s proposed release. Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, pointed out uncertainties about the timing and scale of any withdrawals from reserves, noting that the main challenge lies in the achievable rate of drawdown rather than the reserve volumes.
Supply concerns persist as Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC shut down its Ruwais refinery following a fire caused by a drone strike, marking the latest disruption to energy infrastructure linked to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is attempting to increase exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, although shipping data indicates these supplies remain insufficient to offset reductions from the Strait of Hormuz. The Kingdom’s neighbors—Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE—have already cut production.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates the ongoing conflict is reducing Gulf oil and oil product supplies by approximately 15 million barrels per day, with crude prices potentially rising to $150 per barrel. Morgan Stanley added that even a rapid resolution of the conflict would likely mean several weeks of market disruption.
Reflecting increased demand, U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week, according to American Petroleum Institute data cited by market sources on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Trixie Yap in Singapore; edited by Sonali Paul and Jacqueline Wong)
Special Analysis by Omanet | Navigate Oman’s Market
The proposed largest-ever release of global oil reserves by the IEA to counter supply disruptions amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran presents both risks and opportunities for Omani businesses. While this release may temporarily stabilize prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and infrastructure attacks signal persistent volatility in oil markets, potentially elevating crude prices to $150 per barrel. Smart investors and entrepreneurs in Oman should consider diversifying portfolios and exploring energy sector innovations to hedge against supply shocks and capitalize on price fluctuations.
